1. E readers will not enter the mass market
Although the company has repeatedly said that the e-reader is the end of 2009 the most popular technology gift, it is actually very difficult to break into the mass market. Early users of electronic reading devices mostly business travelers, or avid reader who love books, in them, a little better than a sack reader of books to light more. Especially in today's flight with a baggage only allowed at any time against the background of the reader to travel to the value is even bigger. And the general public readers, however, more choice: Smart phones, laptop computers, Internet and traditional paper books in this.
ABI believes that e-readers will enter the first vertical application markets, such as in the classroom to replace the traditional paper books. 2010, there will be more electronic reader products, and more rich business model, however, into the mass market is "mission impossible."
2. IPhone (mobile Internet) can not be overcome
The phone is full copy into the iPhone era. However, the imitators and copy the iPhone is not the essence, for example, difficult to follow the trend of mobile phones such as the iPhone as "cool." In the long run, copy iPhone is doomed to fail, to follow suit very difficult to go beyond imitation. Many follow the trend in the production of CDMA handsets - because iPhone is not the appropriate model, using the CDMA network, users can not buy the iPhone product. In the short term, these imitators have some benefits, but long term, if the CDMA version of iPhone come out someday, and their good old days perhaps an end.
3. China will not undermine the mobile phone market cottage
If you buy a new phone do not want to spend too much money, then you can buy China's cottage phone! Recently, there have been reports that the proliferation of cottage emerging mobile phone market, and destruction of low-cost handset manufacturers such as Nokia, Samsung mobile phone sales. However, ABI's view is that, although the cottage menacing mobile phone, mobile phone industry in 2010 will not cause much harm.
First, the brand is very important. Trusted brand in the eyes of the importance of low-end consumers are very high, many people do not realize that, in fact, this is the Nokia and Samsung, the popular cause in developing countries. Moreover, brand cell phone is also able to do well, "localization", which is cottage phone can not match. Whether in the brand value or distribution channels, the cottage is very weak.
Secondly, the phone is not a one-time items, the quality is very important. Many fake or non-brand low-end products in China tend to be used as a one-time items, it is the survival of goods in many countries, the reasons. But the phone is durable and low-end markets in developing countries, mobile phone replacement cycle is relatively long, therefore, durable, good quality mobile phone is more favored by the users.
Third, resist the mobile phone is simple cottage. For example, in India, the government for reasons of national security considerations require that all mobile phones be equipped with a unique IMEI code, otherwise we can not use. As the cottage can not get phone IMEI code, so the market, turned into zero. If other countries adopt this approach, then there would be no cell phones cottage a foothold.
Finally, the declining cost of mobile phone brands. For example, the latest low-end Nokia phones cost only 20 euros. 2010, mobile phone prices will further decline, the price advantage cottage is no longer evident.
4. PCMCIA data card will not return
2010, PCMCIA, CardBus, and ExpressCard products will account for all mobile broadband modem, and router shipments of 2.3%, while the USB Bluetooth modem will skyrocket in 2010, will provide 74% of the connection.
5. Femtocell history will not quit
Recently, on the Femtocell market has not reached the expected words have different opinions, but the latest forecast in the ABI, we have lowered expectations. This seems to make people mistakenly think that the market outlook is bleak, it is not the case. A series of recent moves in France that, Femtocell in developed markets and promising. France Telecom operator SFR has announced the launch of femtocell-based services to address the loss of traffic and ARPU. In France, mobile phone penetration is very high quality mobile broadband - up to 200Mb, but more importantly, there are healthy and dynamic competitive environment. France can be seen as a global alternative fixed in the process of moving a miniature, where every move is quite useful.
6. Move the "P2P payment" will not be the American public to accept
Recently, several manufacturers have announced the launch of "Mobile P2P payments (mobile person-to-person payments)", a point of view, this payment model will soon receive public recognition. However, ABI denial. In fact, P2P payments, cash or checks have been easy enough, does not use mobile "P2P" necessary. Had previously launched the business in the U.S. Obopay (Nokia 2009 has been acquired), 2008, has been fought in developing countries abandoned the U.S. market.
Mobile P2P payments to reach the banks do not handle banking customers a way, these users generally use the cash payment, but most people have cell phones.
7. Internet video will not significantly erode the pay-TV market
Over the past year or several years, analysts, marketing and other industry people who have been declared pay-TV will soon come to an end, that Internet video is so popular and increasingly popular, thus consumers will give up cable television, Satellite TV or IPTV services to turn into the embrace of free internet video. These statements from the surface, some truth, but many signs that this view is short, very early.
First of all, compared with traditional television, Internet video is difficult to navigate. To search for content, in most cases, you often have to go to different Internet sites to find content. Of course, Hulu would like the site in a variety of video content aggregation site, but the user is difficult to watch the video in its television, will be subject to various restrictions.
Second, the practice shows that ad-supported Internet video free of charge through the release of model is not feasible. Even Hulu also did not sell many ads.
Free internet video eventually be the end of the day. When the Internet video market matures, or make reference to pay-TV model of development. By that time, to give up pay-TV users will be substantially reduced.
8. Social networking sites will inevitably suffer network attacks
The rapid development of social networking sites in 2009, and in the coming year, IT managers need a high degree of attention to prevention and social tools and social networking sites related attacks. Do not say we did not warn you!
9. Education will not give up the opportunity to lead 802.11n
By the significant use of video on campus as well as classrooms and dormitories of the increase in broadband demand, in 2010, the University will be the largest deployment of 802.11n market.
Indeed, despite the growing number of 3G networks, 4G has also been gradually business, Wi-Fi does not slow down the signs. More and more devices to install Wi-Fi chip, while operators in order to reduce WAN traffic pressure and provide a better experience to users need Wi-Fi support.
10. Telepresence will not become mainstream
Although through the use of Telepresence (a kind of through a combination of high-definition video, audio and interactive components on the network to create a unique "face to face" experience of new technology) could save the costs, but, as between different vendors software and hardware lack of interoperability, and the corresponding equipment will have to spend the necessary expenses, which would limit the business.
11. Not all mobile turn-by-turn navigation free of charge
Although Google claims will be launched in the United States-based Android mobile phone free turn-by-turn navigation service, but the market still need to pay better quality mobile navigation. Free navigation has been made many years ago, for example Locationet two years ago launched a free amAze services, but failed to continue. Ironically, the company recently announced a paid version of better quality. Although Google launched a free service, but in the end is in a country, and only applied in a mobile platform.
12. Operators will not be replaced by the remote transmission LBS platform
While third-party software in iPhone LBS achieved great success, operators, and remote delivery platform will not be replaced. Enterprise asset management, personal tracking and navigation, the operator is still the preferred provider of LBS services. In the minds of consumers, operators, more reliable, more secure, safe, reliable, and more emphasis on user privacy.
13. HP, 3Com is not easy to digest
HP's acquisition of 3Com process is not as most people think is so easy. First, large differences in corporate culture - the collision of Silicon Valley and Beijing; Secondly, in the small exchange of equipment, there is overlap between the two operations; and 3Com's TippingPoint lack of development of the natural environment in Hewlett-Packard.
14. GSM will not die
Although the new 4G network deployments have been to the stage, it does not mean that GSM would have no market, and in fact, many Third World countries still in the deployment of GSM / GPRS / EDGE network. A lower requirement for communications in developing countries, as long as the guarantee call, SMS and wireless-based banking can be. In these areas, the cost is the most important factor. Expensive base stations, mobile phone and 10 dollars monthly telephone bill for 5 dollars bill is the common rule. When developed countries are to WCDMA or LTE over time, the communication needs of developing countries still remain at the most basic level, therefore, the required technology is essential.
15. Use of renewable energy power generation and grid (on-grid) is not made significant progress in the deployment of base stations
Most first-line telecommunications equipment manufacturers such as Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia Siemens, Huawei and Ericsson are all able to provide renewable energy base. Most of these vendors to focus on the off-grid base stations in developing countries markets - Africa, India and the Far East, while in Europe and North America, the use of solar and wind power generation base stations are few and generally located in relatively remote areas.
Use of renewable energy power generation is also facing many problems, the deployment of high cost, and large occupy physical space, and related technology is not mature enough to support large-scale deployment, which requires operators to jointly promote and equipment manufacturers.
16. LTE will not be widely deployed around the globe
Operation Chamber of Commerce will accelerate capital expenditures for the current 3G network speed and capacity expansion, the majority would not choose to deploy in the near future LTE. Moreover, in addition to terminal prototype USB modem, and some outside, LTE terminal would not be too much.